Not very likely!

Today we started talking about probability. I asked the kids what this word sort of sounded like, and instead of "probably" -- the springboard I was hoping for -- they all said "problem." Yep, this is a problem.

Our exploration today did go pretty well though, once we gave up on certainty. The concept of something that is ALWAYS true or ALWAYS happens eluded them a bit. To them, going to bed at 9 o'clock is certain, and me being a teacher is certain. I asked them, "What if I decided tomorrow that I wanted to be a famous actor?" and one little girl immediately shot back, "You're not a famous actor!"

Certainly rude!

Then we moved on to the probability demonstration. I gave each group of partners a paper sack with 6 red cubes, 3 blue cubes, and 1 green cube in it. The kids took turns pulling a cube out without looking, and then making a mark on the tally chart. Each group did this 20 times. At the end, most of the groups had a higher amount of tallies in the red column, as would be expected.

When we did it a second time, though, the cheerleading came out. I heard someone say, "This time, I'm going for green!" and whenever a green came out, there was cheering. Or if I walked by, someone would tell me, Red and Blue are tied!!

It always starts to turn into a contest, with the kids rooting for one color to "win." Poor orange. He didn't have any supporters today.

Tomorrow we do spinners. When I told the kids that, they got excited, thinking I meant the stupid little paper contraband things they make and pass in class. When I brought them back down to earth by telling them I meant the circle with the arrow that you flick, they seemed disappointed.

Maybe we'll have to play Twister.

IMPOSSIBLE!!

Yesterday at the end of my morning class session, I did prize basket drawing as I usually do on Fridays. I have a little plastic bucket that the kids put blue tickets that they have earned into, and I draw out 4 or 5 names for pencils and prizes.

As the kids were running up to throw their tickets into the bucket, I said, "Time to play the probability game! Let's see who's most likely and least likely to win!" Pleased with myself for referencing a topic we had covered right before break.

I then asked, "Who would be IMPOSSIBLE for me to choose?" -- thinking that good responses might include the principal, President Obama, Hannah Montana, etc, since they would never have any tickets in the bucket.

Instead, the kids yelled in unison the name of one of the kids in the class. A kid who, in turn, grinned sheepishly and said, "Oh yeah, I don't have any tickets in there."

Hey, he doesn't earn prizes, but at least he understands the concept of impossible.